The Truth About the Mortgage Market
Subprime mortgages have now been credited for bankrupting well over 110 lenders and seriously damaging operations at many major mortgage firms. They've reportedly wiped out 5 hedge funds, tens of thousands of jobs, and have led to millions of foreclosures with millions more on the way. And, as if that weren't enough, subprime mortgages are also blamed for massive volatility in the stock, bond, credit, futures, and real estate markets here in the US and around the globe. Some say losses in the mortgage securities market alone could reach hundreds of billions of dollars this year. This means that, for any Americans looking to buy, sell, or refinance a home, they are confronting a very different market from the one that existed just 6-12 months ago. How did this happen? The recent real estate boom was fueled by a period of record home appreciation and historically low interest rates. Banks, in order to compete, loosened guidelines and began offering more funding to more borrowers through riskier, non-conforming or "exotic" mortgages. These ideal lending conditions persisted for several years, supported by high demand, historical real estate data, home prices, and massive trading volume/profits on mortgage-backed securities and other financial instruments on Wall Street. Then, in 2006, a slowdown in real estate led to a deterioration of home values, an increase in inventories, and ultimately to today's tightening of credit guidelines, leaving many investors unable to sell or refinance out of their existing positions. Many Americans who had tapped into their equity were suddenly tapped-out and overextended as home values fell. Foreclosures followed in record numbers and a re-valuation of mortgage bonds and other financial instruments created the credit/liquidity domino effect we're now experiencing. Unfortunately, it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. According to the latest estimates, over 2 million subprime and Alt-A adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) holders will face payment increases of up to 30%-100% when their loans reset in the next 2 to 18 months. These loans make up less than 40% of the total mortgage market, but the negative effects, as we have seen, of increased foreclosure activity can have a ripple effect throughout the industry and around the globe. What does this mean to you and your mortgage? Sellers: If you're planning on selling your home, be prepared for an even smaller pool of qualified buyers. While some experts predict a settling of this credit crisis over the coming year, tightened credit guidelines and diminishing mortgage products could knock out as many as 15%-30% of potential qualified buyers. Now is not the time to sit and wait for the best possible price. Have a serious talk with your real estate agent. Having experienced buying/selling transactions in your area, he or she can help you price your home accordingly. He or she can also help ensure that your buyers are pre-approved and stay pre-approved throughout the entire transaction.Buyers: Get pre-approved by your mortgage professional. While there are a lot of great deals out there, getting credit is becoming tougher and tougher, and it's taking longer and longer to complete a transaction. Remember, what you qualify for today could change tomorrow in a volatile market. For those looking to refinance, keep this in mind. There is no time to delay! Communicate with your lender. Don't do anything that could negatively affect your credit, and make sure you get all your documentation in on time. ARMs Borrowers: If your ARM is scheduled to reset in the next 2-18 months, you need to schedule an appointment with a mortgage professional right away. Whether your ARM is subprime, Alt-A, or even if you have a pre-payment penalty, don't let a default or foreclosure situation sneak up on you. Did you know that your monthly payments can increase anywhere from 30% to 100% once your loan resets? At the very least, give yourself the peace of mind of knowing what your adjusted payment will be. Borrowers with less-than-perfect credit: Each week it seems lenders are shedding more and more mortgage products. Many lenders have stopped offering No-Doc loans and are reducing all forms of Stated-Income loans. While it might be challenging, borrowers with credit issues need to see a loan expert. Often they have credit repair resources and other strategies to help you reach your financial goals. Finally, there's an important concept to embrace: all markets, while cyclical in nature, are self-correcting, be it credit, real estate, stocks, or bonds. For the last 6 or 7 years, real estate was booming and riding high. The correction we're experiencing now – while it seems harsh and could get much worse – is, in a sense, "natural" and directly related to the extremely loose guidelines and perhaps overzealous lending and leveraging during the boom cycle.
For the first time in more than four years, the Federal Reserve cut its Fed Funds Rate, which directly impacts millions of American borrowers. And while this important decision has many implications, there’s still some debate among experts about what this means to the economy as a whole.
The Federal Reserve meets again in six weeks, and no one is certain how market volatility and inflation concerns will affect their future policy and decision-making. Bottom line: Take advantage of this opportunity while you still can. Call me right away.
Borrowers waiting for a lower fixed-rate mortgage may be waiting for a long time. The chart below clearly shows how Fed Funds Rate cuts do not translate into cuts in fixed-rate mortgages. In January 2001, the Fed Funds Rate was at 6% and 30-year fixed rates averaged 7.03%. By December 2001, following 4.25% in cuts throughout the year, home loan rates were actually up to 7.07%.
Yes, we may experience some temporary improvements in rates in the coming weeks, but the markets will remain volatile as long as inflation and recession are a possible threat to the Federal Reserve's long-term economic policies.
If you’re looking to refinance or buy a new home, call me. I will show you why waiting can cost you a lot of money.
The Short SaleA Viable Alternative to Foreclosure
Economic experts have said that the real estate market is not a major factor in the Federal Reserve's true goal of keeping inflation in check – and its recent activity seems to bear this out. By strategically infusing billions of dollars into the banking system and unexpectedly cutting its discount window rate for 30 days, the Fed has clearly attempted to "bail out" the financial and credit markets. The real estate market, however, continues to suffer nearly double the number of foreclosures as it did this time a year ago – one in every 693 US households. In some states, the statistics are even worse, with foreclosures claiming one in every 199 households!
Because of this, YOU Magazine will ignore the media hype surrounding the Fed's financial policies and focus our attention this month on an interesting process known as a short sale. As a realistic "last" alternative to foreclosure, and a great opportunity for potential homebuyers and real estate investors, the short sale will continue to become more and more prevalent as millions of ARMs reset (see YOU Magazine's August issue) over the next 2 to 18 months and trigger newer and bigger waves of foreclosures.
If you or someone you know has an ARM that is scheduled to adjust in 2007 or 2008, please schedule an appointment with a mortgage specialist right away. Don't let a foreclosure or default situation sneak up on you. Remember, even if the Federal Reserve does lower its Fed Funds Rate later this month (which does seem likely), the majority of these ARMs borrowers will not be positively affected or "saved" by this move. For many borrowers, a short sale or a foreclosure will be the only available option.
What is a Short Sale?A short sale, defined as an "agreement" to allow a home to be sold for less than the amount that is owed, can be a helpful compromise for everyone involved. For debt-ridden homeowners or those who owe more than the house is currently worth, a short sale could save them some of the enormous pain, embarrassment, and major credit challenges associated with bankruptcy and/or foreclosure. For lenders, it helps avoid some of the hassle and expense of seizing and auctioning off delinquent real estate. Lastly, for potential homebuyers and real estate investors, a short sale offers a great opportunity to purchase property at a significant discount in today's tight-fisted credit environment. And, while short sales are not by any means common or easy, inventory levels of unsold homes are now exceeding a 36-month supply in some parts of the country. Add to that the increasing number of foreclosures, and lenders are much more eager to negotiate with borrowers who are having trouble paying their mortgages.
Short Sale RequirementsIt's important to note that short sales occur at the sole discretion of the existing lender or servicing company. This is not like negotiating the price of a home under normal circumstances. Would-be buyers need to accept and understand this concept completely prior to entering into any purchase agreement on a short sale transaction. While a buyer and seller may come to some sort of agreement on their own, the lender in a short sale will ultimately have final approval of this legally-binding arrangement.
Remember, lenders are not looking to bail out borrowers who simply overextended themselves during the recent real estate boom. In most cases, a lender will only consider a short sale if a borrower has clearly suffered a serious financial hardship that directly caused him or her to default on the mortgage. This means the loss of a job, a serious illness, or the death of a loved one – something devastating and "unforeseen" that can justify such a state of financial disrepair. If you're a "flipper" with 2 or 3 homes that you weren't able to unload before the market turned, or if you have other assets or income that could easily cover your mortgage debt, it's not likely that a lender will accept a short sale proposal.
A written declaration and supporting documentation demonstrating financial hardship and an inability to make payments will definitely be required by the lender in order to even consider a short sale. This may include pay stubs, tax returns, and liquid asset statements – including those for retirement accounts – among other documentation. In addition, the borrower must be at least 91-days delinquent before a lender will even discuss a short sale.
In some cases, the lender's hands may be tied, depending on how the borrower's loan was sold into the open market through mortgage-backed securities. If the mortgage in question was not sold by the lender, but rather retained in its own portfolio, the lender may have more flexibility. However, don't expect a lot of help from the lender without first providing a sales contract from a qualified buyer and all the information required by the lender's loss mitigation department. This is where an experienced real estate professional becomes invaluable to your cause. A good real estate agent has not only successfully negotiated short sales in the past, he or she will also have access to qualified investors who are well-versed in the substantial risk and reward involved in this extremely complex and often drawn out process.
Important Additional Considerations:
In other words, be proactive. If you have an ARM that is scheduled to reset in the near future, or if you're facing foreclosure because of unexpected life events, don't wait until a short sale is your last viable option – and don't count on the Fed to "bail out" the real estate market any time soon.
Fed Discount Window Cut
What does it mean for you?
The Federal Reserve has taken significant action in the last few weeks due to the credit crunch. And now they've made an unexpected move by cutting the discount window rate – which is great news. I'll get to that in a minute, but first let's look at recent events and understand what they mean.
Market movement
To date, over 120 mortgage companies have closed their doors due to reduced liquidity. The result: Borrowers who want to take out non-conforming loans have fewer, more expensive options.
Many media outlets have incorrectly added fuel to the fire by stating that mortgage lending has stopped altogether and that borrowers can't get a loan without a 20% down-payment. This is not true.
Conforming interest rates and loan programs, those backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have not been significantly impacted by recent events. Even better, interest rates have come down from recent highs. While this is good news, the market is experiencing unprecedented volatility and changes could come at any time. Borrowers need to act swiftly and decisively in today's climate.
What did the Fed do?
Now back to the discount rate. This is the interest rate charged to commercial banks and other depository institutions on the loans they receive from their regional Federal Reserve Bank's lending facility. The Fed's decision to cut this rate provides stability in the financial markets and this can be good for all of us.
How exactly does this provide stability? Here's an example: Imagine you just wrecked your car and it requires $5,000 worth of repairs. You have a short-term need for cash to pay your mechanic. Even though you know you will eventually be reimbursed by your insurance company, you still need the cash now. So do you sell off stocks to get the cash, or tap into an equity line of credit? Most likely, you draw from that line of credit rather than liquidating a long-term investment.
This is what the banks are facing in today's liquidity crisis. And Bernanke's move helps them avoid long-term damage by supplying access to short-term cash.
It's important to note that the discount rate is different than the Fed Funds Rate, which directly impacts interest rates that you pay for Home Equity Lines of Credit, credit cards, and automobile loans. Most importantly, the discount window rate cut does not directly impact mortgage rates.
What should you do now?
Information, knowledge, and expertise are the building blocks of sound financial decision making. If you are considering financing or are in the process of financing a home, you should tap into the resources of a skilled mortgage professional. I strongly encourage you to contact me as soon as possible. I would welcome the chance to help you navigate these choppy waters.
Credit Crisis Cripples Markets
The purpose of this communication is not to alarm you but to alert you to drastic and irreversible changes currently taking place in the mortgage market. If you or anyone else you know will need mortgage financing in the next 18 months, you need to read this!
Just last month, American Home Mortgage and its wholesale counterpart, American Brokers Conduit, became the latest casualties of the credit crisis. Last year, this company closed over $58 billion in home loans. Despite being, by all accounts, a well-run business, market conditions forced them to file for bankruptcy, leaving billions of dollars in loans in their pipeline unable to close. Tens of thousands of borrowers have now been left without financing as a result of companies like this going under.
Clearly, with over 100 national lenders having now closed shop in the last eight months, this is no longer simply a subprime lending issue. The credit market is experiencing unprecedented turmoil. According to Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, "Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses, and the housing correction is ongoing."
What does this mean to consumers?
Potential borrowers cannot wait any longer.
Borrowers with applications in process must not delay.
Sellers can no longer be reluctant to accept offers or reduce prices.
Buyers with credit issues or who have difficulty providing required documentation can no longer sit on the fence.
Subprime and Alt-A refi candidates, especially those with ARMs scheduled to reset over the next 12 months, need to act now - even those with a pre-payment penalty.
What does this mean to you?
If you or someone you know has any ongoing real estate transaction, I would be glad to help. Please call me right away. As an educated mortgage professional, I will utilize my experience and resources to help you and your loved ones to navigate through these turbulent times. Don't leave your future in the hands of some random mortgage provider. I'm local, accountable, and you can trust that I'll do everything in my power to help you succeed.
Down Payment Assistance Program | Home | Mark's Blog
Copyright © 2008 Down Payment AssistancePortions Copyright © 2008 a la mode, inc.Another XSite by a la mode, inc. | Admin Login| Terms of Use| Site Map
